Deutsche Bank GT-1. The potential impact of a hard landing in China Cumulative loss in output over a five year period (D/0) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ARG CHN RUS SGP MAL THA SAR IDN HKG POL BRZ TUR JAP CHL PHL IND GER ITA ZAF MEX FRA KOR UK AUS US CAN Source:: Guavin and Rebillard. 2015 (Banque de Franco ~Icing papar no. 562) 7.3 Simulation of an investment led slowdown that takes growth in China to 3% by 2017 compared with a more gradual deceleration to 6.4% by 2019 Deutsche Bank DeEksch, Bank • 14 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0070017 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00216201 EFTA01375000