From: US GIO <us.giw@jpmorgan.com> To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: JPM View 05.04.2012 Date: Fri, 04 May 2012 21:07:57 +0000 Attachments: JPM_View_05.04.2012-pdf.zip Inline-Images: image003.png J.P. Morgan The J.P. Morgan View Global AsSet Allocation JP Mogan Owes Bank NA J P Morgan Season Lid Playa 2012 Signal versus noise Jan Laeyam • Asset Allocation — Next-tem incenenturn is negative for risk markets but we find the signal from mednuiFtenn drivers 'note reliable and thus stay vnth out long nsk assets for coming months 0.212•034-5874 ran otganfcA John Mennend • Economies— Fallen Global All-lndustry PMI eliminates upside risks on (•420) 73245222 growth. but is consistent with 2 2% global growth projection we have for Q2 pm nermandatlamagno can Loss of USpab momentum :Mph), Q? may cane in closet to 2% Nlkolaos Penighttoglou • Fixed Income— End of BoE'sQE next week a headwind for gilts (4420) 1/, VOW raOlaeS Panritc01044WK•Wei•xim • Equities— OW US vs Euro nen equities. DAX vs Eurostroor50 and MSCIEM Ana vt NtSCI Seamus Mac Goraln PM 20)/111 2506 • Credit — Keep the focus on US credit maws macgoranntamotpan tom • Foil ern exchange— Remain risk neutral and focused on earning cany cyclical <latencies with low vol and non-threatening valuations (Scandinavia) Matthew Lehmann ptc20) l 21630 while tumults:I/manly selling upside on stretched commodity nurencies matinee m lehmantamorgat corn • Commodities — Neutral outlook favours spread trades over next 3 mouths Leo Evans 444.20) 7142.253r Mntada svanseiammgan men • Equity mat ken adsweek gave back all their gains of the protons week and have now fallen back to the low end of the tillage they have held over the past 10 weeks Commodities andbonds yields commie to fall from the yen highs seen m March The dogs: Is up against Most eurtenCiet YM tan *mph an 3 oppaiss ap togas cote • This week fall's In risk prices, and the tally in bands and the dollar. had for once little to do with Europe where pcmphery yields are down nicely Instead, we are seeing a number of economic data releases punctuated by today's US payrolls report. that show fading momentum into the second quit to. The magnitude of the negative sumnses are not yet large enough to force downgrades of growth forecasts Our global 2012 protection does slip back to the 2 2% forecast we held all through Q1 but this is lapels a rounding issue caused by lest week's US pl cut and this week downgrade of Tam= SIP502 WO DI Teo. -4 IISOICYcn, LISHttc. ENS Cm I Eire • Market anention has focused on weaker Pills across thrum Id and l.'S‘ jobs data. Our April Global Manufacturing. PMI edged back to the January level and as thus really unchanged this year Our Global Sconces Pall. in contract. fell pouts, pushing ow All-Lncksare PMI down 2 points and back to its November level By themselves. these data are consistent with our 2 1% global growth forecast for Q! They lease oc with balanced nsk on global moth two as the drop elinunate, the upside risk bias we had before this month MSC 6.rtee Co. USW, Cmcset Loal Sant- 1=11 GSM l=3 E6fad Fa.. Li • Snralarly, the weaker US jobs data are squalling a loss of monvennun into Q2 and make il more likely that US Q2 will come closer to 2% fiat comparedwith ow 2.5% port-bon At the start of the year, we expected onstage monthly Jobs growth at 200.000 The fun few months came in well above this. Mule the shortfall over the past 2 months Wings the YID mean exactly to 200.000 Flom Gate Gmeoms - ❑ Eiacm Find inn' p uS can • • is • Sin Jr11••• SYS, •••••• WI Lai ono., ..imiged MOM tamale fume The certifying anslost n mdwated by an "c See page 7 for analyst certification and opposing legal and tertian), disclosures. Wilelialla,K8••••VISS nanalal www.morganmarkets.com This email is confidtntial and subject to important disclaimers and conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at httplAvww.jpmorgan.comipageedisclosurestemail. EFTA01176676